The Ebb and Re-globalization of Globalization: Path Selection and Policy Responses in Economic Transformation

Abstract

Based on the background of global value chain reconstruction, accelerated regional economic integration and intensified geopolitical conflicts, this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of the dual pattern of deglobalization and reglobalization on the world economy.By constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model including trade costs, technological spillovers and institutional heterogeneity, combined with cross-national panel data from 2000 to 2023, this paper reveals the coupling effects of industrial chain regionalization, digital trade rule fragmentation and green transformation.The study finds that: for every 10% reduction in the length of the global value chain, the scale of manufacturing outflow from developing economies will increase by 2.8%; the reduction of internal trade costs among member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will increase regional industrial synergy by 17.3%; for every 1 standard deviation increase in digital economy service trade barriers, the global technology diffusion efficiency will decrease by 9.2%.Based on this, it is proposed to build a new institutional policy framework for an open economy with the trinity of "institution-technology-market".